Our volume of goods for sale fell from 72

It is not there understand nothing. While real estate activity fell sharply between the end of 2008 and early 2009, the days seem to have restored to the going to the purchasers. At least some of them. At the time, professionals are optimistic, hammering to who wants to hear them that the crisis is behind us and recovery imminent. We would like to believe. Some figures appear however to demonstrate that the exit of the tunnel is still far. For René Pallincourt, Fnaim President, sales at the former should not pass the bar of the 500,000 in 2009 (up from 650,000 to 670,000 good years). For its part, the new President of the Federation of manufacturers France sponsors, Marc Pigeon, table on 90,000 sales this year (against 127 in 2007 and ascribable in 2008). Behind the scenes, some professionals dispute this figure, the felt closer to 80,000.

Decline in prices over one year

Side Prize, statistics provided by the federations as by the major networks blur the photograph of the market as to the extent and persistence of the decline. So they reflect only a small part of the transaction. Where reliability regularly contested. However, numbers are fairly consistent. Thus, if Fnaim recorded an increase of 4.2 in the second quarter of 2009 from the previous quarter, which tends to show a certain resumption of activity, it notes, however, a drop of 6.6 between the second quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2008 and establishes the average change over the last twelve months to-7,3. At Century 21, the drop in prices would be to 7,52; at Laforêt, it ranges between 5 and 15 depending on the sector. "One cannot generalize, some areas prices picked up the force, in others they suffer", note in Guy Hoquet. Notaries, by far the most reliable, register a decrease in prices in a year (in the first quarter 2009) 3.9 for apartments and 8.8 for houses in the Ile-de-France. In the province, the decrease is respectively 7.2 and 8.

If more black scenarios seem to be avoided, at least for the moment, all is not rosy. Of course, in the absence of real recovery, the rally is indisputable. But is the result of a return to the purchasers confidence Difficult to answer. "One thing is certain: the summer season is always conducive to real estate activity, as this is the moment where bankers let go ballast for to achieve their business goals of year end, says economist Michel Mouillart.". The rally is also linked to the decline in prices, than the rates of credit, the relaxation of the conditions for granting the loans. The Government's stimulus plan is also his work.

The impact of unemployment

From this point of view, developers can thank the authorities of the nine under infusion. Device Scellier - it is about 55 to 60 of sales currently-, double the loan rate zero (PTZ), creation of Pass-land... are all supporting sales of the nine. "Because of the financial crisis, stock investment is deemed at risk, investors have fled in the stone." The PTZ brought primo-homebuyers to sales offices. "All of this explains the encouraging results of the second half," said Jean-Philippe town, Bouwfonds Marignan.

However, one thing is certain: 2009 will remain a bad vintage for real estate. Comparing the first quarter of 2008 with the first quarter of 2009, the decline in sales stood at 42 and, in the second, although the number of sales has increased by 33 from the first quarter, the transactions remain 29.2. And it is probably not the progress expected in the third quarter (from 7 to 8 from the second quarter) which will seal the breach. "The year 2009 should end on a decline of 27 to 33 according to market segments," says Michel Mouillart.

Whether the rally will be sustainable, nothing is less sure. It may be held back by the housing shortage facing the nine, many projects have been abandoned in recent months. "Developers have restarted sustainable operations that they had frozen, said Marc Pigeon, but the picture of the current market is a reflection of the stalls of the past year."In the former, the concern points also. "Our volume of goods for sale fell from 72.000 to 61.000 in one year," notes Laurent Vimont, the CEO of Century 21 France. In short, the vendors retract, waiting for better days.

Another factor could thwart a possible recovery: the extent of unemployment in the coming months. Because the destruction of jobs necessarily affects the real estate activity. The crisis of the early 1990s has well demonstrated. "Economists expect a rate of unemployment between 10 and 11 in 2010, indicates Michel Mouillart. At 11, some professionals will have to revise their arguments. "In the medium-sized cities and rural areas, the damage of the crisis are more marked than elsewhere. Socio-professional categories, in the case of primo-homebuyers in power, are very exposed. In such a context, even if the French remain incorrigible amateur of stone, not sure whether they are likely to start the adventure.

The rental market reflects, similarly, the consequences of the rise of unemployment and the decline in purchasing power. "Tenants lack confidence in the future and prefer to defer their residential mobility projects," explains Michel Mouillart. result, since the beginning of the year, rents are falling. Of course, step across, but according to the latest survey clamor, it is the case now in 50.4 of the cities. And, contrary to what one might think, the most affected are not small, but the family apartments. In the end, the most expensive region, average Ile-de-France (17.10 EUR/m2en) and less expensive, Limousin, (8.40 EUR/m2), rents range from the simple to the double.

Rates still on the floor

"It has the feeling of past the trough of the wave, launches Sandrine Allonier, the spokesman for MeilleurTaux. In full month of August, we recorded 41,000 credit applications, against 33,000 in August 2008 and roughly 38,000 in August 2007. "And the speech is the same everywhere. "Activity again, says his side Empruntis.". With the decline of prices and rates, acquisition candidates returned to action. "In particular, investors and the primo-accession, that benefit each law Scellier, others to the doubled PTZ. The credit market also suffers from the decline in transactions. "In 2008, 780,000 operations funded, while one table only 630.000 in 2009", said Christophe Pinault, of Credit Foncier.

Currently, rates are around 4 for a good record. "In October 2008, with a monthly payment of 1,000 euros, it could borrow 160,000 euros at 5.25." "Today, it reached 180.000 EUR 4.20 over twenty-five years", said Sandrine Allonier. The borrower earns an average of 20,000 euros. Excluding the gain on lower prices. Remains whether this favourable to the loan will be sustainable.