There is no doubt that our economy is sick

The rise of unemployment still cools the hopes of recovery across the Atlantic. Despite the positive psychological impact of the g-20 and the voluntarism of the President of the Fed on the markets, the new announcement of unemployment to 8.5 in March (compared to 8.1 in February), the highest level since 1983, has cast a shadow, this weekend, on the scenario of an "exit of the tunnel" imminent. The persistent deterioration of the labour market, with 5.1 million positions destroyed since the beginning of the recession ( 663.000 in March) contrasts with the signals of thinning on the front of industrial activity and construction. Even if the Dow Jones index has passed the bar of the 8,000 points for the first time in two months, the rise of unemployment sounds like a hard reminder to reality.

Figures "execrable".

"There is no doubt that our economy is sick." "Even when we see the economy restart, we tend to see the unemployment increase even for a short period", warned the Chief Economist of Barack Obama, Christina Romer, still calling these figures of "terrible". According to the Director of the Council of Economic Advisers, should still wait three to six months for the US $ 787 billion stimulus plan could deploy its effects. In the meantime, this new increase in unemployment, for the fifth straight month, brings the number of job-seekers to 13.2 million people, of which 3.3 million have lost their position in the last five months. Staff cuts now spread to all sectors of the economy, other than health. In addition, the figures for the previous months were unfavourably reviewed, January retreat now estimated at 741.000 job losses or the largest monthly decline in absolute terms since the end of the 1940s.

"Of the labour market is still purely and simply falling," said David Rosenberg of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also noting the strong increase in part-time employment (9 of the workforce). The industrial groups announced new plans for reduction of workforce include IBM, Johnson Controls, 3 M Dana Holding, but also the US Postal Service to reduce costs through some 150,000 departures early retirement. The big question mark remains the future of General Motors. His eventual placing under the regime of Chapter 11 bankruptcy, still in abeyance until June 1, could translate into a million of deletions of position in the automotive sector and leap the unemployment rate to 11, against a forecast of 9 to 10 for the end of the year according to economists. At the rate things are going, some are beginning to doubt the realism of the plan of backup or create 3.5 million jobs in two years promised by Barack Obama.

Accompany the resumption

"Despite the impressive stock trigger past three weeks, it is too early to sound the Bugle of the recovery", said David Rosenberg, who sees first signs of deflation in the landslide to the decline of the average wage. Meanwhile, in his speech on the financial statement of the Federal Reserve, Friday, the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, clearly reaffirmed its willingness to use all means "non-conventional" to accompany the gradual resumption of growth expected by early 2010. "We live more in a world where the policies of central banks are confined to the adjustment of short-term interest rates", he said Recalling that the balance sheet of the EDF has already more than doubled from 870 to 2,000 billion since the beginning of the crisis.

It remains to know whether the combined effect of the stimulus and plan the policy of financial support ("credit easing") of the Fed, which has proved sometimes "very uncomfortable" of the admission of its President, will suffice to halt the recession.